WITH ARTICLES BY: SAL CIPRIANO || SEUNG LEE || IAN PARFREY

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

REALIGNING A NEW WILD CARD SYSTEM

In my last Report Card, I touched upon the subject of moving the Astros to the NL West, and moving one of those teams to the AL West. This was in an effort to give every division 5 teams each. I never understood why the NL Central had to have 6 teams, and the AL West, 4, no matter what the reason. Yesterday, we found out, through the great Tom Verducci, that MLB has started preliminary talks about a floating realignment system that would allow teams to leave divisions from season-to-season "based on geography, payroll and their plans to contend or not." This doesn't fly for me at all, too many variables, and much-too-much left up to the owners. Then, today, I heard Don LaGreca of the Michael Kay Show give a realignment scenario that included an AL Northwest that had Seattle, Minnesota, Colorado, and KC. Huh, what?!

My first thought of Astros to NL West and let's say the D'Backs to AL West is simpler and easier than all of that, but if you do want to complicate things, I'll offer up an extended scenario that could be completely exciting. Starting, of course, with the aforementioned 2 moves.

Ladies and Gents, I offer up a new MLB Wild Card and Super Seventh Division. Ah, the Wild Card race, such big topic of debate each and every year, and rightly so, as it offers such a unique aspect to the playoffs. The concept of the Wild Card now is that the team with the best record in each league that is not a division leader at the end of the season becomes the Wild Card team. A variation of that should should stay put, but not as the Wild Card, but as the MLB Super Seventh Division. Why the name change? Because, let's face it, often times this team has a better record than some of the division leaders! That, to me, isn't necessarily a wild card, but another great team deserving of a playoff spot. A seventh super team to add to the division leaders. The variation now would be that all major league teams would be lumped together here to determine this one team, with the winner entering the playoffs of what ever league it came from. It certainly would make inter league play more important!

This would be in play for all but six teams.

See, I want a new Wild Card division that is really and truly made up of wild cards! Let's get to it.

In devising this second new division, I first look to certain other sports around the world (say Italy's Soccer League) where the last place teams in the A division are dropped to the B division each year. Technically that would be equivalent to say the Royals being dropped to Triple A, but we'll just use it as a basis.

Under my new system, every last place team in MLB would be dropped into this new Wild Card Division as a separately aligned division. Six total teams would compete here, more than the others which would now all have four teams (four better teams). Simply, the first place team at the end of the season is declared the Wild Card with a chance to play in the playoffs. Now that would be a true wild card. From last to playoffs! Certainly would make it even more interesting, and I'm sure low-tier owners would salivate at this.

To further it past year one, each season the records of the WC teams are compared to those of the divisions from where they originated, and if these WC teams have better records than those of the last place teams, then they move back to said division and the new last place team moves to the WC.

Let's line it up based on last year's records as an example. What you don't see at the bottom is that I first moved the Astros and D'Backs as planned, but in doing so they became the bottom two teams of their new divisions, and so they are moved to the WCD.


So what would have been different was that the Astros would've made the playoffs and the Rockies would have stayed home. Pretty interesting. You might say, "but the Astros totally don't deserve to be there!" To which I would counter that with, "but they beat 5 other teams to do it, while every other playoff team (save the Super Seventh) only had to fend off three!"

I think this is a much better realignment scenario than what has been "floated", and utilizes the Wild Card system in a new and unique way, not to mention gives fans of even the most bottom feeder of teams new hope that they too can see a World Series in their lifetime!

Well, that's what I've got. Now, I'll wait and see what MLB really does. At least put five teams in each league already! Sheesh!

Friday, March 5, 2010

COPING WITH REYES' THYROID IN 5 EASY STEPS

5. Jose Reyes sucks ___________ (fill in appropriate sphere shaped object here).
In Reyes' career he's had 3 healthy years, and 3 injury plagued ones. . His ankle (2003), his hamstring (2004 and 2009), his calf (early 2009, separate injury) and now his thyroid (2010) have caused him to miss playing time. Since his legs are most often injured, and his value lies mostly in his speed, (and add that he often seems to be playing without his brain) the Mets have a pretty serious liability in the middle of the infield.

For fantasy purposes, if his condition is serious, I'm going downgrade his health from D (injury prone) to F (Rich Harden).

4. Do we blame the steroids?
No. While the thyroid secretes hormones, they aren't the common hormones associated with muscle or athletic ability. And let's not go there. A thyroid problem is serious.

Worst case scenario: If he has thyroid cancer, he'll have to undergo treatment that will take him out for awhile. It's unlikely that thyroid cancer would be life threatening, but it would mean that his body will have difficulty regulating hormone production, which he will then have to regulate with medication. Permanently. And since it affects energy level, it would probably affect his ability to play.

For once, I'd be curious to know how Reyes has been feeling. I'm assuming that he's feeling 'fine,' which is why I haven't read anything about his condition. If he's overly lethargic, it's more likely that there is something wrong. It's Reyes, though, so lethargic for him may be the level of an average 2 year old.

Thyroid cancer is considered common, with about 40,00 cases reported each year, but it's not THAT common, since there are a dozen other forms of cancer that occur in people more frequently. Oddly enough I don't know more than one person with any other form of cancer, but I know three people in NYC who have a thyroid condition.

Should we blame the water?

3. It's probably not that serious.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. All that was diagnosed was a thyroid imbalance in a blood test. One blood test. They did a follow up and he was fine. Minaya was just being cautious.

See #2 for why if I were Minaya, I'd probably err on the side of caution.

2. Fire the medical staff, already!
You know another reason why I'm not too worried right now?

Because I, like most Met fans, have absolutely zero faith in the Mets training staff. After their abysmal performance at identifying and treating injuries last year, there should have been a reorganization similar the Yankee management response to the flurry of pitching injuries in '07.
Mets management should have, if only to encourage some level of consumer confidence. They didn't. Shocking, I know.

So, if the the Mets medical staff actually figured out that something may be wrong, it's likely that nothing is.

1. David Wright suffers career ending surgery after dislocating his shoulder and tearing back muscles after suffering a freak accident sneezing while carrying deer meat up the stairs of his hotel room. After driving a motorcycle. From a pickup basketball game.
At this point, nothing would surprise me.

Weird stuff has happened to lots of baseball players. The Reyes one isn't funny. But some of the ones I bring up here were. Good luck trying to figure out all the real life freak accidents to MLB players that I pulled from to generate this headline.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: NL CENTRAL

And so the Report Card series comes to a close. Amazing that up till today guys were getting signed. In this case Felipe Lopez with the Cards. Anyways, Spring Training is well underway, so enjoy!

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Major Signings:
Matt Holliday, Felipe Lopez, Brad Penny, Rich Hill
Major Trade Acquisitions: none
Major Losses: Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Joel Piniero, Todd Wellemeyer
Report: While the Cards shed some players this offseason their aquististions were well spent. Matt Holliday was their giant purchase, but after seeing what he did behind Albert Pujols he was a must have. Assuming they extend Pujols, this will be among the best 3-4's in baseball. Brad Penny was the only major addition to the rotation, although Rich Hill will get a chance to compete for the fifth spot. Can Penny continue what he started in San Francisco late last year? If so, their top four are fairly decent. And bringing back Felipe Lopez is a fantastic late signing.
Overall: Overall, pretty good.
Grade: B+

CHICAGO CUBS
Major Signings:
Marlon Byrd, Xavier Nady, Kevin Millar, Chad Tracy, John Grabow
Major Trade Acquisitions: Carlos Silva
Major Losses: Milton Bradley, Aaron Heilman, Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson, Neal Cotts
Report: Their biggest move was getting rid of headache Milton Bradley, of course they got Carlos Silva for him, but if he makes a "comeback" he could be a run of the mill 5th starter. Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady are the outfield replacements. Byrd could surpass Bradley's output with another decent season. Those are all OK moves, but the small signing of John Grabow to a big contract was quite silly.
Overall: OK at best. I think their outfield is stronger than it was last year, but otherwise that's about it. Replacing Rich Harden with Carlos Silva is not good.
Grade: C

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Major Signings:
Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Schoeneweis, Jim Edmonds, Kameron Loe, Claudio Vargas, Gregg Zaun
Major Trade Acquisitions: Carlos Gomez
Major Losses: J.J Hardy, Mike Rivera, Seth McClung, Jason Kendall, Frank Catalanotto
Report: The Brew Crew were pretty crafty this offseason. They strengthened both their rotation and bullpen with the big catch being Randy Wolf. Did they overpay for him? Possibly, but I like his chances for a repeat performance from last year, and Doug Davis provides another solid, if unexciting, starter. They also traded away J.J. Hardy for the speedy Carlos Gomez. Can the youngster realize his potential? If so, this was a fantastic deal.
Overall: Others might not, but I liked Milwaukee's offseason. They had needs and filled them to their means.
Grade: B+

CINCINNATI REDS
Major Signings:
Aroldis Chapman, Orlando Cabrera, Jonny Gomes, Kip Wells, Laynce Nix
Major Trade Acquisitions: Aaron Miles
Major Losses: Wily Taveras
Report: They spent their cash on Cuban defect Aroldis Chapman. Oh, and Orlando Cabrera who is declining, but has a ton of postseason experience. Not that this team will benefit from that.
Overall: Meh, the Chapman signing was a lot of risk.
Grade: C

HOUSTON ASTROS
Major Signings:
Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz, Brett Myers
Major Trade Acquisitions: Matt Lindstrom
Major Losses: Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada, LaTroy Hawkins
Report: Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins gone, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom in. The latter replacement made for a good trade, but Brandon Lyon was grossly overpaid. Disgustingly even. The two will be battling for the closer's job, but with the money Lyon is getting (3 years for 15 mil) you have to assume he's the odds on favorite. Either way, it's going to get scary down in Texas. Pedro Feliz replaces Miguel Tejada, mostly with his glove, and Brett Myers looks to return to form on his new team.
Overall: I dunno, these signings have all kinds of red flags. Just on the Lyon signing alone you have to give it a bad grade.
Grade: D

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Major Signings:
Octavio Dotel, Ryan Church, Brendan Donnelly
Major Trade Acquisitions: Akinori Iwamura
Major Losses: Matt Capps
Report: So, I somehow deleted this Pirates entry twice, which is always good to make me nuts. Of course, it's the last entry! Why are there so many teams in the NL Central?! That makes me crazy as well. Can't we realign so that Houston goes to the NL West and one of those teams goes to the AL West? This isn't rocket science!
Overall: Dotel is better than Capps, Aki is equal to Freddie Sanchez. That's a wrap.
Grade: B-

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: NL WEST

The finish line lies ahead with only two divisions left. First up the NL West where the Dodgers will have even a harder time this year with some improvements around the divisions, and a lack of improvement for themselves.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Major Signings:
Jamey Carroll, Vincente Padilla, Luis Ayala, Ronnie Belliard, Russ Ortiz, Nick Green, Doug Mientkiewicz, Brad Ausmus, Jeff Weaver, Brian Giles, Alfredo Amezaga
Major Trade Acquisitions: none
Major Losses: Randy Wolf, Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Jon Garland, Juan Pierre
Report: Besides resigning most of their supporting crew and adding to that, this team did nothing. They lost a major rotation piece in Randy Wolf, and didn't even bring back Jon Garland. An ugly off-field divorce of the owners has caused all of this, and that's just a shame. The best thing they did was lock up some of their key young players.
Overall: Locking up your youngsters is definitely a good thing, as at least it guarantees a core, but they seriously needed another pitcher and didn't get that. They will feel that for sure.
Grade: D

COLORADO ROCKIES
Major Signings:
Miguel Olivo, Jason Giambi, Melvin Mora, Tim Redding, Jimmy Gobble, Paul LoDuca, Jay Payton, Justin Spier
Major Trade Acquisitions: none
Major Losses: Matt Murton, Josh Fogg, Jose Contreras, Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Marquis
Report: This is a team that really didn't need much, and so they really didn't do much besides adding a bit of depth. Most notably, they brought in Melvin Mora as infield insurance policy, they replaced Yorvit Torrealba with Miguel Olivo, and brought back clubhouse captain Jason Giambi.
Overall: Not much to say here as a solid team didn't do anything crazy, and that's just fine.
Grade: B

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Major Signings:
Mark DeRosa, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Bengie Molina, Todd Wellemeyer, Guillermo Mota,
Major Trade Acquisitions: none
Major Losses: Ryan Garko, Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, Randy Winn
Report: While the Giants needed some real power, they instead brought in some possible power in Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff, the latter coming off a terrible season. For what it's worth, they did try to sign Adam LaRoche for two years only to be shockingly shunned. However, the two signings could help them and they did resign two factors from last year: Bengie Molina and Juan Uribe. Is this enough? We'll see.
Overall: A meh off-season. After missing out on LaRoche I probably would've went for Russell Branyon instead of Huff, but that's just me. Johnny Damon would've been better than DeRosa as well.
Grade: C

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Major Signings:
Jon Garland, Jerry Hairston Jr., Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Stairs
Major Trade Acquisitions: Scott Hairston
Major Losses: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Brian Giles, Henry Blanco
Report: Under new GM Jed Hoyer, the Padres quietly made some alright moves. They traded away Kevin Kouzmanoff to bring back Scott Hairston and a good prospect, they signed a much needed veteran pitcher in Jon Garland, brought in Torrealba to platoon with Nick Hundley, and added Matt Stairs and Jerry Hairston Jr. to their bench. Not blow you out of the water moves, but solid, little ones that'll help this team be better this year.
Overall: What I just said.
Grade: B

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Major Signings:
Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Rodrigo Lopez, Bob Howry
Major Trade Acquisitions: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Aaron Heilman
Major Losses: Max Scherzer, Eric Brynes, Daniel Schlereth, Doug Davis, Chad Tracy, Scott Schoenweiss
Report: The D'Backs were part of one of the biggest trades, no not the one that brought them Aaron Heilman, but the three team trade that kicked off the Winter Meetings in style. The one that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, and Phil Coke to Detroit, and Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to this team. Some say that the D'Backs got the short end of the stick, but they really traded a starter and a reliever for a more developed starter and another starter that could be good in this division, so that's not too bad. They also have a new right side of their infield in Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson, both former Braves. If Johnson can turn things around these will be good pick-ups for them.
Overall: They gave up some guys to some guys, they gave up on some other guys, they signed a couple of helpful players, not too shabby.
Grade: B-

Sunday, February 21, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: NL EAST

Part four in the Report Card series features the NL East, where the Phillies still rule with an iron fist.

**Please note unsigned players do not yet count as a loss.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Major Signings:
Placido Polanco, Danys Baez, Ross Gload, Brian Schnieder, Jose Contreras
Major Trade Acquisitions: Roy Halladay
Major Losses: Cliff Lee, Pedro Feliz, Clay Condrey, pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Scott Eyre, Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Chan Ho Park
Report: On the surface, it appears that the Phillies did really well for themselves. Coming off a second straight appearance in the World Series, there wasn't much to really do, but then they went and got Roy Halladay. A fanatastic move that unforunately gets kind of negated by the subsequent move of trading away Cliff Lee. This team was on the prescipice of having the best 1-2-3 in baseball, an almost a sure-fire third straight World Series appearance, and the clear favorite to win it all. GM Ruben Amaro apparently didn't want that, however. Since he knew he wouldn't resign Lee to the money he would garner, he opted to replenish a farm system that traded for both stud pitchers within 6 months. Not the worst idea, but none of the prospects in the Lee-to-the-Mariners trade were better than any they gave away, and again he let a sure thing go away. The thing about it is that they would've received 2 draft picks when Lee got signed next offseason anyway, so it didn't make much sense to trade him now. One extra prospect as compared to another Championship is absolutely nothing. Amaro was being too crafty for his own good. Moving on from there, they replaced Pedro Feliz with Placido Polanco in another move I don't like. Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins were on the market, remember? Weird. Some interesting smaller moves could be good like bringing in Jose Contreras to pitch where ever they need him, and Ross Gload as a bench upgrade to Matt Stairs and Eric Bruntlett. Overall: Again, to me the Halladay/Lee trades are latteral moves, and the only thing that's a positive is that Doc is signed for the next three years. Oh, and duh, he's Doc freakin' Halladay. Otherwise it's been a mediorce offseason.
Grade: B+ *they also extended Joe Blanton, which changes my initial rating of a B to a B+. Thanks, Mike!

FLORIDA MARLINS
Major Signings:
Mike MacDougal, Mike Lamb, Seth mcClung, Jose Veras, Derrick Turnbow,
Major Trade Acquisitions: Hunter Jones
Major Losses: Matt Lindstrom, Nick Johnson, Kiko Calero, Ross Gload, Brendan Donnelly, Jeremy Hermida
Report: Well, you really didn't expect the Marlins to do much, did you? They're cheap, and they're going to get by with their growing core of youngsters behind Hanley and Josh Johnson, and see where they go. Can't really fault them with the latter part of that.
Overall: When you know what you're getting into prior, you can't really call it bad, but you can't call it good either.
Grade: C

ATLANTA BRAVES
Major Signings:
Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Troy Glaus, Eric Hinske
Major Trade Acquisitions: Melky Cabrera
Major Losses: Javier Vasquez, Boone Logan, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Kelly Johnson, Garret Anderson, Adam LaRoche
Report: The Braves made some cost-cutting moves this offseason, but maybe not the right ones. Trading Javier Vasquez coming off his best year was probably a mistake. They should've tried harder to get rid of Derek Lowe instead. Melky Cabrera was the only major league ready component of that trade, and he may finally get a full season to prove himself. In the NL, he may just do that, but will it be worth it for the Braves? We'll see. They also let their prime-time closing team of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez go to the AL East, and replaced them with the aging, but reliable, closing group of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Was this a wise move? As far as experience, yes since these guys are proven commodities, but Wagner is still returning from major surgery, even though he looked good for the Red Sox down the stretch last year. They also signed Troy Glaus to play first base, a position he has some experience in, but not much. I thought Adam LaRoche should've been resigned here, but he didn't fit into the budget.
Overall: It's hard to say. They've added risk in Wagner, Saito, and Glaus, but when they are on they are very good players. Trading Vasquez, to me, was a mistake, though, and that drops them a bit.
Grade: B-

NEW YORK METS
Major Signings:
Jason Bay, Rod Barajas, Mike Jacobs, Hisanori Takahashi, Frank Catalanotto, Shawn Riggins, Henry Blanco, Chris Coste, Fernando Tatis, Josh Fogg, R.A. Dickey, Kelvim Escobar, Ryota Igarashi, Alex Cora
Major Trade Acquisitions: Gary Matthews Jr.
Major Losses: J.J. Putz, Tim Redding, Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan, Brian Stokes
Report: Ah, the Mets, what can be said about New York's other team under their current management that hasn't already been said all over the place. They signed Jason Bay, a neccessary, good move, but look at the laundry list behind him. Instead of going out and signing someone of value they decided to put their strength in mediocre and under performing numbers. I mean, how many bad catchers do you need?! Rod Barajas will start, but it's anyone's guess who will back him up. They didn't address the need for a quality starter, so the number 5 starter will be a crap shoot. Carlos Beltran won't start the season because of knee surgery, which caused a mess with the team, so a combo of Angel Pagan and trade import Gary Matthews Jr. will do the honors. Needless to say, there are a bevy of question marks surrounding this team at a time where they could've used some stability,
Overall: They seemed to be in on everyone, and got virtually no one. Sure, Jason Bay gets them points, but the rest of their signings and non-signings coupled with various other issues that went on this offseason brings things down a couple of notches.
Grade: B-

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Major Signings:
Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Marquis, Chien-Ming Wang, Adam Kennedy, Matt Capps, Ron Villone, Willy Taveras, Miguel Batista, Chris Duncan, Eddie Guardado, Eric Bruntlett
Major Trade Acquisitions: Brian Bruney
Major Losses: Austin Kearns, Josh Bard
Report: I think the Nats did well for the Nats. This isn't a team that can easily lure free agents to them, but they did what thaey had to do. First, they remade their bullpen with Matt Capps taking over at closer, and Brian Bruney setting up; that's a hard throwing one-two. To their rotation they added Jason Marquis, a solid innings-eating guy, which is what they needed. He also provides some veteran presence to a young staff. Catching that young staff will now be Ivan Rodriguez, at least till Jesus Flores completely recovers from a torn labrum. That's good wisdom for Flores to absorb as well as the staff. Adam Kennedy, off a decent season with A's, takes over at second base as well, giving them another solid vet. Finally, they added a potential ace in Chien-Ming Wang, who will try to return to form later this spring. If he does, thats a huge boost to their staff.
Overall: Not bad, not bad at all. The Nats will improve this year for sure, and with some hot, young pitchers coming they'll improve even more!
Grade: B+

Thursday, February 18, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: AL CENTRAL

*Updated 2/21/10 with Johnny Damon to the Tigers and Russell Branyon to the Indians.

Part three in the Report Card series features the AL Central, where the top three teams will still fight for the division, while the last two may switch places.

**Please note unsigned players do not yet count as a loss.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Major Signings: Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome, Clay Condrey, Carl Pavano
Major Trade Acquisitions: J.J. Hardy
Major Losses: Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, Mike Redmond, Boof Bonser
Report: The always solid Twins made pretty good moves. They traded for J.J. Hardy and signed Orlando Hudson to create a more potent combo up the middle on offense and defense. Jim Thome gives them a strong bat off the bench that could DH regularly if they play Kubel and Cuddyer in the outfield corners and bench Delmon Young. They are also returning Carl Pavano who pitched well for them as he accepted arbitration from them.
Overall: They didn't lose much and gained more, so this team should be right back where they were at or close to the top of the division.
Grade: B+

DETROIT TIGERS
Major Signings: Jose Valverde, Adam Everett, Johnny Damon
Major Trade Acquisitions: Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth
Major Losses: Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Lyon, Marcus Thames, Aubrey Huff
Report: Some crazy moves for the Tigers this off-season, including a late signing of Johnny Damon! First off, though, they traded their stud center fielder Curtis Granderson and #2 starter Edwin Jackson in a mega three team deal with the Yankees and D'Backs. Not that their returns were bad, Max Scherzer has more upside than Edwin Jackson, Austin Jackson is like a younger Granderson without the power, and Schlereth and Coke will help their bullpen in front of new closer Jose Valverde. Grabbing Damon really helps their offense, although his power numbers will decrease in Commerica Park.
Overall: While many say they didn't like them giving up Granderson, I think AJAX is going make everyone shut up sooner than later. And they got younger in a few spots, saved a tad bit of money (even though they seem to be reinvesting it), got a more trustworthy closer, and added Damon. To me, that's pretty decent.
Grade: A-

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Major Signings: Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, J.J. Putz, Freddie Garcia, Ramon Castro
Major Trade Acquisitions: Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen
Major Losses: Chris Getz, Josh Fields, Octavio Dotel, Scott Posednik,
Report: The South-Siders imported lots of spare parts that may or may not work out. Juan Pierre replaces Scott Posednik, and after Pierre's part-time showing last year, more of that could be beneficial to the Sox. Mark Teahen has a chance to prove himself at his best position (3rd), and Omar Vizquel was brought in to more than be his understudy. Andruw Jones will be a DH candidate unless Johnny Damon comes to camp. J.J. Putz will set-up for Bobby Jenks, and offer a bit of net should Jenks continue to regress.
Overall: No huge moves here, but complementary ones to go with the pieces that are there right now. Pierre and Teahen could really have the opportunity to make this team better. Is it a successful offseason? Quietly, I'd say yes, but again none of these moves bowl you over.
Grade: B-

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Major Signings: Mike Redmond, Mark Grudzielanek, Shelley Duncan, Austin Kearns, Russell Branyon
Major Trade Acquisitions: None
Major Losses: Kelly Shoppach, Jamey Carroll
Report: Hmm, well then there's the Indians, a team going severely backwards as they've shed most of their stars in the last couple of years, instead going with whatever good youth they have. Unfortunately, some of that youth is questionable, and they didn't do anything this off-season to help themselves. Heck Mike Redmond is the only guy listed as a major league signing, I put the other guys in because I felt bad! They brought back Russell Branyon to play first again, and Jake Westbrook is finally coming back to lead their staff, but this may be the year that KC overtakes them.
Overall: A bad offseason will lead to a bad season. Anything else will be a surprise.
Grade: D

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Major Signings: Jason Kendall, Scott Posednik, Rick Ankiel, Brian Anderson
Major Trade Acquisitions: Chris Getz, Josh Fields
Major Losses: Mark Teahen, John Buck, Mike Jacobs, Miguel Olivo, Coco Crisp
Report: They've basically signed a whole new outfield, but they still have most of their old one! Huh?! I'm not a 100% sure I understand how GM Dayton Moore operates. Not that the signings are necessarily bad, but OK, they also traded Mark Teahen for Josh Fields and Chris Getz, which clogs up their infield as well. I guess Moore is just trying to give Trey Hillman as many options as possible, but more players (like Alex Gordon and Alberto Callapso) need to start establishing themselves on this team. And with all the catchers out there this year, including their own, they signed Jason Kendall...to two years!
Overall: The only thing I can say is that Moore was trying to improve their defense. In that way, good job, but I think these signings were unnecessary overkills.
Grade: C-

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: AL WEST

Part two in the Report Card series features the AL West, a division that may produce a new king led by a king...

*There are some notable players still out there like Johnny Damon, Felipe Lopez, and Russell Branyon, so we'll update these lists as we go.

**Please note unsigned players do not yet count as a loss.


LOS ANGELS ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
Major Signings
: Hideki Matsui, Fernando Rodney, Joel Piniero
Major Trade Acquisitions: Brian Stokes
Major Losses: John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, Gary Matthews Jr., Darren Oliver, Kelvim Escobar
Report: Will this be the season that the Angels finally go down to another AL West team? (Namely the Mariners) With the loss of a boatload of major players, it could very well be. The loss of their ace, John Lackey, will hurt the most. His replacement? Joel Piniero, who I really think will be a major bust outside of Dave Duncan's care. I believe they upgraded at DH with Hideki Matsui over Vlad Guerrero, as long as Godzilla can stay of the DL that is. Chone Figgins will be very hard to replace both at third and at the top of their line-up. They'll once again try to break in Brandon Wood, but Maicer Izturis will probably be there before long. Fernando Rodney gives them a second closer with Brian Fuentes, which may or may not be a good thing.
Overall: This is still a great team, but Seattle has improved alot, and no one really knows how much the Angels will be affected by their losses. The third base situation needs to be clear once they open the season, as it'll affect the line-up as well. Will Scott Kazmir bounce back? And how exactly will Mr. Piniero fare?
Grade: B-

TEXAS RANGERS
Major Signings:
Vlad Guerrero, Rich Harden, Khalil Greene, Darren Oliver, Colby Lewis
Major Trade Acquisitions: Chris Ray
Major Losses: Marlon Byrd, Omar Vizquel, Kevin Millwood
Report: Have the Rangers improved themselves? Good question. They brought in Vlad Guerrero, who may or may not have anything left. In this park, though, he may be revitalized. He should provide stability to their DH spot at least. Marlon Bryd's departure clears up their outfield a bit where Josh Hamilton hopes to rebound after an injury-plagued season. They traded away Kevin Millwood, and added the younger Rich Harden, who still has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy. This may be the best change for the team. They also swapped out Omar Vizquel for Khalil Greene as their infield sub. At one time Greene was considered quite the upcoming shortstop, but injuries and issues have led to this role. Adding Chris Ray and Darren Olivier to their bullpen is a boon, and the interesting addition of Colby Lewis fresh off a great Japanese stint could a sleeper of a rotational signing. They've also shed Hank Blalock, who remains unsigned, meaning Chris Davis has one last shot to prove something, as Justin Smoak is breathing down his neck.
Overall: I think this team is indeed better. While none of these moves blow you away, they should help, and with the possible emergence of Seattle, anything helps.
Grade: B

SEATTLE MARINERS
Major Signings:
Chone Figgins, Ryan Garko, Eric Brynes
Major Trade Acquisitions: Cliff Lee, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Brandon League
Major Losses: Carlos Silva, Adrian Beltre, Brandon Morrow
Report: The Mariners have done pretty well this off-season, quite possibly better than anyone else they improved their club by leaps and bounds, mostly because the acquisition of a second ace in Cliff Lee is just a brilliant move. Lee teamed with King Felix gives them the best one-two in baseball. While the rest of the rotation is unproven, the top two will take so much pressure off of them, they may just deliver quietly good seasons. They also replaced Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins, which gives them a great top of the line-up teaming with Ichiro. Figgins brings speed, a good eye, and good defense to the team. They swapped bad contract and no value in Carlos Silva for bad contract with some value in Milton Bradley. Sure he's a pain, but is bat is still good, and he won't kill you in the outfield. Eric Byrnes was added for defense as a fourth outfielder as well. Their first base situation now has great defender Casey Kotchman starting with Ryan Garko's bat backing him up. Brandon Morrow was traded for Brandon League which helps their bullpen in front of David Aardsma.
Overall: I dug this team's moves quite alot. Again, the Lee trade was fantastic, and the Bradley trade made bad money work. Their defense will be great, and Figgins will totally jump start this team. They may miss Russell Branyon's big bat, but they've done enough to possibly cover that loss. For sure, they are the team to watch this year.
Grade: A

OAKLAND A'S
Major Signings:
Ben Sheets, Coco Crisp, Jack Cust, Justin Duchscherer, Gabe Gross
Major Trade Acquisitions: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Adam Rosales, Jake Fox
Major Losses: Scott Hairston, Adam Kennedy, Bobby Crosby
Report: Ladies and Gentlemen, the A's present their 2010 trade deadline chip: Ben Sheets! Is there any doubt about it? I mean why else would they pay Sheets 10 mil? In the meantime, he can throw some real ace wisdom to their burgeoning staff. They traded for Kevin Kouzmanoff to take over third base, while returning Scott Hairston back to the Padres. That cleared their outfield to bring in Coco Crisp, to lead Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney to greatness? Maybe? I do like Davis of the three at least. Old favorites Jack Cust and Justin Duchscherer were brought back, and a couple of young back-ups were traded for in moves that saw Wily Taveras pass through their system on the way to unwanted free agency.
Overall: Not the worst moves, but Oakland is in severe need of finding out who their core really is. Sheets may net them more prospects, but at some point these players need to distinguish themselves. I don't see these guys doing too well overall this year, which falls right into Billy Beane's Sheets plan, but some of these pitchers have potential. That's a start.
Grade: C

Monday, February 15, 2010

HOT STOVE REPORT CARD: AL EAST

UPDATED: I started this list a couple of weeks ago as a "progress report", but never had the chance to continue. Now with pitchers and catchers reporting this week, effectively beginning Spring Training, and bringing the Hot Stove season to a close, it's a good time get this out there as a "report card". Again, we'll do these one division at a time. This first one has been updated, but the "needs" part has been taken out, instead we'll go with an expanded "report" section and an "overall" section.

* There are some notable players still out there like Johnny Damon, Felipe Lopez, and Russell Branyon, so we'll update these lists as we go.

**Please note unsigned players do not yet count as a loss.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Major Signings: Andy Pettitte, Nick Johnson, Randy Winn, Marcus Thames
Major Trade Acquisitions: Curtis Granderson, Javier Vasquez
Major Losses: Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera, Brian Bruney, Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr., Chien-Ming Wang
Report: The World Champs have been one of the big winners of the off-season while uncharacteristically setting a budget for themselves that they actually stuck to. They re-upped with one of their boys, Andy Pettitte, and brought back Javy Vasquez to the rotation. This gives them a solid 1-4, with the final spot most likely going to either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. Vasquez was one last year's better pitchers, having a near Cy Young-worthy season with Atlanta. His first stay in NY ended rather badly, but this is a much more mature pitcher, and I think this was an excellent trade. With fan-favorite Melky Cabrera gone in this deal, center field now belongs to former Tiger, Curtis Granderson. This was the Yanks' biggest splash of the off-season, unloading a few very good prospects to grab a guy who, on paper, seems like a perfect fit for this team. Nick Johnson was also brought back, this time to fill the DH hole created by Hideki Matui's flight to the Angels. Johnson is a fantastic on-base machine and should slot into the number 2 hole Johnny Damon used occupy. To further cement Damon's departure, they brought in Randy Winn and Marcus Thames, both of whom will compete with Brett Gardner to fill the left field spot. I expect the incumbant to beat his older competitors and Winn to be the fourth outfielder.
Overall: I think the Yanks did well to replace Damon and Matsui, although the question remains should they have? There's no doubt that both men fit this team well, but you can't argue with a young player like Granderson, and if Johnson can stay healthy his OBP will make up for any lost power. The Vasquez trade is huge, as you're adding a Cy Young candidate to be your #3 or 4.
Grade: A

BOSTON RED SOX
Major Signings: John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro
Major Trade Acquisitions: Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall
Major Losses: Jason Bay, Billy Wagner, Casey Kotchman, Takashi Saito
Report: The Red Sox almost feel like a different team. Their core remains the same with the exception of Jason Bay going to the Mets. The plan is to move Jacoby Ellsbury to left, and their new acquisition Mike Cameron to patrol center. Cameron is an excellent center-fielder, but is aging. If unfazed by that he could be very valuable. They also added Adrian Beltre to play third base, even though they currently still have Mike Lowell on the roster. They were close to trading him to Texas, so don't be surprised if he's gone by Spring Training. Beltre and Cameron should make up for the loss of Bay's pop, and both provide excellent defense. Marco Scutaro finally became an everyday player in Toronto, did very well, and got himself a two year deal with a great team. If he can duplicate last season, Boston finally has themselves a shortstop. Bigger than all three of those is the signing of pitcher John Lackey. The Bulldog is a perfect fit for the Sox and gives them a hell of a rotation.
Overall: Boston did very well, and now has argueably the best rotation in baseball. They will lack some power lost by Bay, but Cameron will be good for 20-25 homers, and if Beltre finds his stroke again, they'll be fine.
Grade: A

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Major Signings: None
Major Trade Acquisitions: Rafael Soriano, Kelly Shoppach
Major Losses: Akinori Iwamura
Report: The Rays didn't do much on the free-agent front, but two trade acquisitions are worth talking about. First off, they traded for Rafael Soriano who will be their new closer, moving J.P. Howell to a set-up role. This gives them a nice one-two to close out games. They also acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians, which gives them a good catching platoon if Dioner Navarro can bounce back from a bad year. With the emergence of Ben Zobrist, the Rays shipped out Akinori Iwamura for more bullpen help. Aki was one of faces of their AL Championship team, and I don't think this happens had he not gotten injured last year. The Rays were one of the teams that flirted with Johnny Damon, but didn't have the room for him.
Overall: Another bat would've been good, but the Rays farm system is ripe and ready. Matt Joyce could be their starting Right Fielder, unless a second base prospect pushes Ben Zobrist to the outfield. Their rotation could've used a veteran presence as well, but that hasn't been the Rays' style.
Grade: B-

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Major Signings:
John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Jose Molina
Major Trade Acquisitions: Brandon Morrow
Major Losses: Roy Halladay, Marco Scutaro, Brandon League
Report: The face of Toronto is gone, but the future looks bright. That pretty much sums up Toronto's off season so far. Roy Halladay, their ace and face of the franchise was finally traded to the Philadelphia Phillies for some very good prospects. Halladay made them credible, but now it will be up to their young pitching to become a force over the next few years. Brandon Morrow, acquired from the Mariners is an interesting acquisition because he can pitch in the rotation or possible anchor their bullpen. They've changed catcher and shortstop, weakening both positions, but again any major player here will come from their system sometime down the line. An interesting late signing has been Kevin Gregg who will compete for the closer role, and may have the best chance of breaking camp with the job. He does have the most experience of the candidates. They also flirted with Johnny Damon, but the team may yet grab a DH. Jermaine Dye or Carlos Delgado could fit in well on this team, performing DH duties while mentoring their young outfielders. Russell Branyon be an interesting choice as well, and a guy that could take over first base next year.
Overall: This one is pretty simple: I can't see 2010 being any good for them, but as early as 2011 you could start seeing a breakout. The Halladay trade brought over some good talent, so it'll be interesting to watch these guys grow.
Grade: B-

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Major Signings:
Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Atkins, Miguel Tejada
Major Trade Acquisitions: Kevin Millwood
Major Losses: Chris Ray, Danys Baez
Report: Quietly, the O's have made some decent moves this off-season. First off, they answered their closer question mark with Mike Gonzalez, who is in his prime and gearing to go. He split a platoon closer role in Atlanta with Rafael Soriano, and funny enough both are now closing in the AL East. They bolstered the top of their rotation with the sturdy Kevin Millwood, who may do wonders for their young rotation. They also signed Garrett Atkins to play first base, and have returned Miguel Tejada to play 3rd. If Atkins can return to form, the O's have made a great cheap signing there. Tejada still has something left in his bat, and he did well in Balto the first time around. Promising rookie Michael Aubrey will get a look at first base as well, so their corner situation should be interesting this year.
Overall: O's fans should rejoice, their team is getting better. While not in the league of the top two yet, they should overtake Toronto this year and challenge the Rays as well. Their core of Markakis, Jones, and Guthrie are joined by the emergence of Nolan Reimold and some young pitching, and also with closer Gonzalez. I look forward to my yearly trip.
Grade: B+

Monday, February 8, 2010

EXPANSION

Just for the hell of it recently, I created an alltime database of team performance, beginning with the formation of the American League in 1901. I assigned 20 points for a championship, 8 points for a pennant, 4 points for winning a division or a division series, and 2 points for losing a division series. I don't exactly remember what I did for 1994 and the years before the World Series, but partial credit was assigned for those seasons.

By this method, the Yankees are shown to have completely dominated baseball for most of their existence. Sal won't have a problem with that, but I'll admit to being annoyed that the Yankees are somehow 2.41 times as successful as the second best team in history, the St. Louis Cardinals. Interestingly, the 8 worst franchises are all expansion teams. Possibly because of the difficulties involved in starting from scratch, possibly because baseball has never expanded into a large-market city unless it already had an existing team. So, if you believe that baseball has overexpanded, like I do, this seems to prove it.

Here's the list of the 30 baseball franchises, ranked by postseason results. The first number is PPPS (postseason points per season), the second is titles won since the expansion era began in 1961.

1. New York Yankees /Baltimore Orioles 6.11, won in 2009, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1996, 1978, 1977, 1962, 1961, etc
2. St. Louis Cardinals 2.53, won in 2006, 1982, 1967, 1964
3. Florida Marlins 2.35, won in 2003, 1997
4. Oakland /Kansas City /Philadelphia A's, 2.35, won in 1989, 1974, 1973, 1972
5. Arizona Diamondbacks 2.33, only title 2001
6. Los Angeles /Brooklyn Dodgers 2.22, won in 1988, 1981, 1965, 1963
7. San Francisco /New York Giants 2.00, last won in 1954
8. Boston Red Sox 1.91, won in 2007, 2004
9. Toronto Blue Jays 1.58, won in 1993, 1992
10. Pittsburgh Pirates 1.47, won in 1979, 1971
11. New York Mets 1.42, won in 1986, 1969
12. Cincinnati Reds 1.34, won in 1990, 1976, 1975
13. Atlanta /Milwaukee /Boston Braves 1.32, won in 1995
14. Detroit Tigers 1.25, won in 1984, 1968
15. Kansas City Royals 1.12, only title 1985
16. Chicago Cubs 1.12, last won in 1908
17. Baltimore Orioles /St. Louis Browns 0.99, won in 1983, 1970, 1966
18. Minnesota Twins /Washington Senators 0.95, won in 1991, 1987
19. Los Angeles Angels 0.94, only title 2002
20. Chicago White Sox 0.90, won in 2005
21. Philadelphia Phillies 0.88, won in 2008, 1980
22. Cleveland Indians 0.73, last won in 1948
23. Colorado Rockies 0.71
24. Tampa Bay Rays 0.67
25. Houston Astros 0.63
26. San Diego Padres 0.54
27. Seattle Mariners 0.42
28. Milwaukee Brewers /Seattle Pilots 0.29
29. Texas Rangers /Washington Senators 0.16
30. Washington Nationals /Montreal Expos 0.15

The expansion success stories are the Marlins and Diamondbacks, though these are in limited sample sizes. Next are the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been stagnant for most of the last 15 years, and the New York Mets... if they're the 4th-most successful expansion franchise ever, having spent most of their existence sucking ass in the largest market in the NL... that only proves the point that expansion franchises tend to get mired in permanent cycles of losing. The Expos / Nationals made the playoffs twice in their entire existence. Maybe baseball moved them out of Montreal out of consideration for their hysterically suicidal fans.

Also, the worst franchise of the original 16 is the Indians, winners in 1920, 1948, and never before or again.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

GOODBYE, JOHNNY!

The Yankees have just signed Randy Winn, effectively and finally ending Johnny Damon's run in pinstripes. While I feel a bit sad that the two sides couldn't get together, I'm glad the lid is closed. It's been carrying on all winter, and the endless amount of speculation was exhausting. I don't even think Winn is the best choice, I'd rather have Rocco Baldelli or even Reed Johnson, honestly, but I'm just glad the roster, on the surface, may be done. Now, for all we know Winn could just be a bench choice as his play last year doesn't really warrant much more, but in a platoon with Brett Gardner he may be OK.

Let's get back to Damon, though, a player I've always liked, yes, even when he was pesky and killed the Yanks with Boston. Johnny was a solid player, and when he came to the Yankees, I thought it was a perfect marriage. Although he lost his center-field job within his first two years, he still was outstanding on offense. His stats during his four-year-run here were spot on, with '09 being his absolute best. The combo of the new Yankee Stadium and his switching in the order with Jeter spurred this on. (I'm sure being in his walk year didn't hurt neither!) He also gave us one fantastic World Series memory that will go down in Yankee history, and forever haunt Brad Lidge and Phillies fans. Like Matsui before him, it was a fitting end to his life in pinstripes, and he got another ring, so all-in-all a great 4 years..

Unlike Matsui, though, he lingered too long in free agency, and is still there now. Matsui signed with the Angels rather quickly, starting his next chapter happily, while Damon allowed his super-agent Scott Boras to pass up a two-year offer from the Yankees for 14 million! It amazes me that such disillusions can exist in this economy. Despite his numbers, he is 36 years old and his outfield play has diminished pretty far. He limped out of Game 6 of the World Series, and would've been out of Game 7!

Now the Yankees have moved on, and Damon will have to also. (maybe as a DH in Tampa) He played a game with Brian Cashman and the Yankees and their very real budget, and lost. Even the Yankees have their limits, and so they should. I love that free agents think that the Yankees should pay more just because they are the richest franchise in baseball. Playing for them is a privilege, folks, and I hope this serves as a lesson to everyone else. Yes, I know that screams snobby Yankee fan, but you tell me of a more prestigious franchise in all of sports and then we can talk otherwise!

As for their signing, again I thought there were better options, although Baldelli can still be brought in on a minor-league deal. Winn is going to look to play more, and if he out-plays Brett Gardner or any other choice, then fine, but I'm not a fan right now. His '09 season was terrible and he's aging himself. Maybe he'll turn that around, and change my opinion. Still, I'd like Gardner to get the most at-bats, but whoever helps the team more, I'll be on-board with.

To sum up everything: Damon, you'll be missed here, sorry, and good luck. Winn, prove me wrong. Gardner, kick his butt. Carl Crawford, we'll see you next year in left.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

MORE MET MISERY

I'll keep this one brief. CF Carlos Beltran is having knee surgery, and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. There are three things this tells us. One, it is high time to fire the Mets entire training staff and replace them with a witch doctor, or maybe Dr. Nick from the Simpsons. Two, the free agent market is, and will always be, an inefficient way to build a contender. Beltran's best seasons were in Kansas City, and he was signed at the same time as Pedro, who left his best seasons in Boston. 170 million dollars and several disappointing (to put it mildly) seasons later, here we are. So sure, let's add 35-year old Bengie Molina. He's sure to lead the stirring charge towards third place. Number three is an anagram of Merri Oaf. Got it?

Thursday, January 7, 2010

STILL NO LOVE FOR BERT BLYLEVEN

A pitcher who's 5th on the all time strikeout list can't get into Cooperstown? It seems likely that he'll be elected next year, as he just missed this time, but who are these voters? Do they watch more ballgames than I do? A quick rundown of Bert's career: He's pitching effectively in the majors at the age of 19 for the 1970 Twins. From 1971-1976, he goes 89-81 for Twins teams that are 25 games under .500 when he doesn't pitch, posts ERA's between 2.52 and 3.12, and strikes out 200+ a year. He's traded to the Rangers in June of 1976 and continues to pitch well there. He's traded to the Pirates in December 1977, continues to pitch well, and allows 3 runs in 19 innings in the 1979 playoffs, pitching 4 innings of scoreless relief in Game 5 with the Pirates facing elimination. He has a mediocre 1980, going 8-13, and the Pirates ship him to Cleveland, where he regains his form and goes 11-7 in the strike-shortened season, before missing almost all of 1982 with an elbow injury, and pitching poorly in 1983. Bert comes back to go 19-7 in 1984, and gets traded again, back to the Twins, in mid-1985. In a typical Blyleven season, he goes 17-16 for two bad teams (the Indians lost 102 games that year), pitches 24 complete games, and leads the league in strikeouts. No one notices. At this point, Bert is 35, and with the exception of his age 38 season for the California Angels where he goes 17-5, doesn't pitch all that well again. He gives up 96 home runs in 1986-87, but makes it back to the postseason with the 1987 Twins, and goes 3-1. Finally, Blyleven has rotator cuff surgery in 1991, at the age of 40, and comes back to pitch at 41, though he goes 8-12 with a 4.74 ERA. So, 287 wins, 242 complete games, a 5-1 postseason record, 2 rings, and 3700 strikeouts? That isn't enough?

Oh, and congratulations, Andre Dawson! More on him later.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

SUCCESS (Amateur Drafts 1987-1991)

Interestingly, the Yankees had the best record in baseball for the decade of the 1980s, but only made the playoffs twice, losing in the ALCS to the Royals in 1980 and to the Dodgers in the 1981 World Series. The 1987-1991 period was not a good one for Yankee fans; the team's initial response to the rise of the Mets was a tailspin that bottomed out at 67-95 in 1990, and the team wasn't competitive until 1993, under Gene Michael and Buck Showalter. The interference of owner George Steinbrenner was partly to blame for the Yankees' directionless stumbling in the late 1980s, as he hired Billy Martin to manage three separate times, changed GM's almost as frequently, and allowed Dallas Green the rare opportunity to wreck both franchises. He hired Gene Michael, who had managed the Yankees in parts of 1981 and 1982, as GM, and allowed Michael more autonomy than previous GM's. The eventual results were 4 championships. Here are the humble beginnings.

1987
7) RHP Dave Eiland. 12-27, 5.74 career. 6-10, 5.23 as a Yankee. Pitched for Yankees, Padres, and Rays, 1988-2000. Eiland is now the Yankee pitching coach. His playing career was unsuccessful, in part due to the Yankees rushing him to the majors.
Later rounds: CF/LF Gerald Williams, C Brad Ausmus.
Nothing to see here. Move along.

1988
6) LHP Jeff Johnson. 8-16, 6.52 for Yankees, 1991-1993.
9) 2B Pat Kelly .249/.307/.369 career, .251/.300/.365 as a Yankee. Bench player for Yankees, Cardinals, Blue Jays, 1991-1999. Kelly played for the 1996 champs, but didn't make the postseason roster.
10) RHP Kenny Greer. 1-2, 4.85 in 13 innings with '93 Mets and '95 Giants.
Later rounds: 3B Russ Davis, CF/LF Deion Sanders, LF/RF Orlando Palmeiro (did not sign), 2B Fernando Vina (did not sign).

1989
2) SS/2B/3B Andy Fox .239/.324/.338 career, .200/.287/.264 as a Yankee. Bench player for Yankees, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Expos, Rangers, 1996-2004.
5) 1B J.T. Snow .268/.357/.427 career, went 2-for-14 for 1992 Yankees. Played for Yankees, Angels, Giants, Red Sox, 1992-2006. Snow had two 100 RBI seasons, in 1995 and 1997, and had 1509 career hits and 189 homers, in addition to being a great defensive 1B. He batted .327 in the postseason. He was traded for 2 seasons of Jim Abbott, who went 20-22 in a Yankee uniform. Oops.
7) RHP Russ Springer. 36-45, 4.52 career. 0-0, 6.19 ERA in 16 innings for 1992 Yankees. Pitched for Yankees, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals, A's, Rays. Still active. Had his best seasons for Tony LaRussa at 38 and 39. Fastball/slider middle reliever who took a long time to find his command. Throw-in in the Jim Abbott trade.
9) LHP Sterling Hitchcock, 74-76, 4.80 career. 22-24, 5.15 as a Yankee. Hitchcock proved to be a very valuable commodity. Packaged with Russ Davis, he brought the Yankees Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson. He pitched well for the Padres in 1998 and 1999, but not nearly well enough to make it worth keeping him. Hitchcock threw hard but straight, and always allowed too many home runs. His career postseason record is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. Pitched for Yankees, Mariners, Padres, Cardinals, 1992-2004.

1990
1) CF/RF Carl Everett .271/.341/.462 career. Played for Marlins, Mets, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers, White Sox, Expos, Mariners, 1993-2006. Doesn't believe in dinosaurs. Everett was lost to the Marlins in the expansion draft. While Everett had great tools and had some excellent seasons-- 59 HR's, 216 RBI, and 41 steals in 1999-2000, he was a negative clubhouse influence and he was usually more trouble than he was worth. He finished with 1304 hits and 202 HR's, but was traded in his prime for Adam Everett, which should tell you something.
2) 2B Robert Eenhoorn .239/.260/.328 career. 5-for-32 as a Yankee in parts of 1994-96. Played for Yankees and Angels, 1994-97. The Yanks didn't have much luck with infield prospects until Jeter came along.
4) LHP Kirt Ojala. 3-10, 4.71 with 1997-1999 Marlins.
6) RHP Sam Militello. 4-4, 3.89 with 1992-93 Yankees. Militello lost the strike zone in 1993, and walked 54 in 20.1 minor league innings over the next three years before shutting it down. Militello was a power pitching prospect who made 9 strong starts for the Yanks in 1992. I guess he cancels out Bill Pulsipher.
7) LF Jalal Leach. 12 at bats for 2001 Giants.
Later Rounds: OF Ricky Ledee, LHP Andy Pettitte, C Jorge Posada, LF/RF Shane Spencer. Wow.

1991
3) RF/LF Lyle Mouton .280/.339/.420 as a bench player for White Sox, Orioles, Brewers, Marlins, 1995-2001. Mouton was a righty platoon outfielder, similar to Shane Spencer but got fewer opportunities.
9) LHP Keith Garagozzo. 9.64 ERA in 9.1 innings with 1994 Twins.
This was the Brien Taylor draft. Taylor was the #1 pick of the 1991 draft, who injured his pitching shoulder in a bar fight before the 1994 season. He missed all of 1994, and walked 184 in 111.1 innings with 59 wild pitches while attempting a comeback. Whether Taylor would have made the majors and pitched successfully is unknown. His walk rate was poor even before the injury, and it's easier to project him as a Kaz Ishii/ Damian Moss fringe starter than a #1 or #2 guy.

So, the core of young players drafted by the Yankees in these years looks like:

C Jorge Posada
1B J.T. Snow
2B Fernando Vina or Pat Kelly
3B Russ Davis
LF Deion Sanders
CF Carl Everett
RF Ricky Ledee / Shane Spencer
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Sam Militello
SP Sterling Hitchcock
RP Russ Springer

While this isn't nominally more impressive than the Met drafts of the same era, it does produce a future Hall of Fame catcher, and a near-HOF starting pitcher. Plus some shrewd trading to net them Tino Martinez and Jeff Nelson. The only player on this list that the Yankees gave up on too soon was J.T. Snow.

Also-- I haven't factored in international scouting, but add to the Yankee core Bernie Williams and the Met core Edgardo Alfonzo.

Monday, January 4, 2010

FAILURE (Amateur drafts 1987-1991)

You can probably guess which NY team this is going to be about. One thing that becomes quickly apparent when comparing the Mets and the Yanks is that one team can grow their own talent, and one for the most part can't. I begin in the winter of 1986-87, when the Mets probably should have died and left a good looking corpse. All drafts were under the direction of Frank Cashen in his Mr. Hyde years.

1987
1) 3B/1B Chris Donnels .233/.319/.355 career, .195/.299/.224 as a Met. Played for Mets, Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, Diamondbacks as a bench scrub, 1991-2002.
2) C Todd Hundley .234/.320/.443 career, .240/.320/.438 as a Met. Played for Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, 1990-2003. Peaked in 1995 and 1996 for Mets with 71 HR and 198 RBI over 2 seasons before blowing out his throwing elbow. Apparently took a lot of steroids. 202 career HR's.
2) LHP Pete Schourek. 66-77, 4.59 career, 16-24, 4.65 as a Met. Played for Mets, Reds, Astros, Red Sox, Pirates, 1991-2001. Won 18 games for Reds in 1995.
8) SS Tim Bogar .228/.298/.332 career, .242/.293/.328 as a Met. Played for Mets, Astros, Dodgers as bench scrub, 1993-2001.
9) CF Pat Howell .187/.218/.200 in 79 PA's with '92 Mets.
Later rounds: RHP Anthony Young!

1988
3) 2B Doug Saunders .209/.243/.239 in 73 PA's with '93 Mets.
7) SS Kevin Baez .179/.244/.245 in 168 PA's with Mets, 1990-93.
This draft was a complete waste.

1989
1) 1B Alan Zinter .167/.214/.333 in 84 PA's with 2002 Astros and 2004 D'Backs. Made the majors at age 34. Hit 263 minor league home runs. Originally a catcher.
3) C Brook Fordyce .258/.309/.388 career, batted 3 times for 1995 Mets. Played for Mets, Reds, White Sox, Orioles, Rays, 1995-2004.
7) RF/1B Butch Huskey .267/.318/.442 career, .264/.309/.434 as a Met. Played for Mets, Mariners, Red Sox, Twins, Rockies, 1993-2000. A power prospect who didn't pan out, couldn't play the field, and lasted only a year and a half more as a DH in the other league.
Later rounds: Drafted Mark Grudzielanek but didn't sign him.

1990
1) RF Jeromy Burnitz .253/.345/.481 career, .237/.322/.432 as a Met. Traded in his second season to Cleveland for RHP's Paul Byrd (also to be given up on too soon), Dave Mlicki, and Jerry DiPoto, because he didn't get along with Dallas Green. Mashed 315 home runs, only 53 in a Met uniform. Hit 153 HR's and drove in 511 for Milwaukee, 1997-2001. Played for Mets, Indians, Brewers, Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs, Pirates, 1993-2006. Oops.
2) SS/2B Aaron Ledesma .296/.338/.365 career, .242/.359/.242 in 39 PA's with 1995 Mets. Got most of his playing time in the first two years of the Tampa Bay franchise. Utility infielder for Mets, Orioles, Rays, Rockies, 1995-2000.
3) RF Micah Franklin. Batted 37 times for 1997 Cardinals.
7) RHP Pete Walker. 20-14, 4.48 career. 1-0, 4.26 in 25 innings as a Met. Career didn't get going until the Mets released him in 2002, and he became a swingman in Toronto. Pitched for Mets, Padres, Rockies, Blue Jays, 1995-2006.
8) C Raul Casanova .236/.304/.379 career, .273/.344/.364 as Mets 3rd string catcher in 2008. Bench player for Tigers, Brewers, Orioles, White Sox, Rays, Mets, 1996-2008.
9) 2B Fernando Vina .282/.348/.379 career, .250/.372/.298 in 150 PA's with 1994 Mets. Retired with 1196 career hits, played for Mariners, Mets, Brewers, Cardinals, Tigers, 1993-2004. The Mets decided they'd rather have mediocre setup man Doug Henry.
Later Rounds: 1B Brian Daubach, who did sign, and RHP's Darren Dreifort and Rick Helling, who didn't.

1991
1) RHP Bobby Jones. 89-83, 4.36 career. 74-56, 4.13 as a Met. Jones won 15 games in 1997,and threw a one-hitter against the Giants in the 2000 playoffs, but other than that was a back-end "innings eater". The Mets sold at the right time, as Jones lost 19 games for the Padres in 2001. Pitched 1993-2002.
2) RHP Marc Kroon. 0-2, 7.76 career in 27 innings with Padres, Reds, Rockies, 1995-2004.
2) LHP Bill Pulsipher. 13-19, 5.15 career, 5-9, 4.63 as a Met. This was a tragic story. Pulsipher inexplicably averaged 7.45 innings a start in 17 games with the Mets as a 21-year old. He blew out his elbow, missed most of the next two seasons, and was never the same. I believe Pulse could have been a great pitcher without the injury, comparable perhaps to Mark Mulder in his prime. Pulse was ahead of Tommy Glavine as a 21-year old. He pitched in the Mexican league last year for Pueblo, posting a 6.08 ERA in 7 starts. In the majors, he pitched for the Mets, Brewers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Cardinals, 1995-2005.
4) RHP Erik Hiljus. 8-3, 4.72 ERA as a swingman for Tigers and A's, 1999-2002.
Later rounds: RHP Jason Isringhausen, who was a pretty good closer for other teams...

Assuming everything works out (which almost nothing did), you have a young core like this:

C Todd Hundley
1B Butch Huskey
2B Fernando Vina
SS Mark Grudizelanek
RF Jeromy Burnitz
SP Bill Pulsipher (in alternate dimension where he becomes staff ace)
SP Bobby Jones
SP Rick Helling
SP Pete Schourek
CL Jason Isringhausen
RP Darren Dreifort

But-- three guys didn't sign, Pulse got hurt, four guys were given up on too soon for almost no return, Huskey and Jones never quite panned out... so basically all they have to show for five years of drafting is Todd Hundley. That's why when the players from the 1986 team got old or became drug casualties, there was nothing to replace them, and the franchise went into freefall. I'll be examining the Yankee drafts tomorrow.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

THE BEST HITTER IN BASEBALL

After posting a few weeks ago about 10 guys who laid an egg in 2009, here's 10 hitters who punished the ball last season.

10. Alex Rodriguez (3b-Yankees) .286/.402/.532
Despite missing 38 games with a hip injury, A-Rod still hit 30 homers and drove in 100 runs. Then he batted .365 with 6 HR's in the postseason, laying to rest the persistent talk of choke artistry. Could we be seeing Kate Hudson's best work since Almost Famous?

9. Chase Utley (2b- Phillies) .282/.397/.508
Yep, his team made the Series, too. Utley is, like Matt Holliday, a guy who benefits from his home park, but would flat-out rake anywhere. In fact, he hit better on the road last year. In addition to 31 homers, Utley gives you little things like 88 walks, 24 HBPs (though this is usuallly good for a few weeks on the DL with hand injuries each season), 23-for-23 steals, and strong defense.

8. Derrek Lee (1b- Cubs) .306/.393/.579
Other than a monster 2005, Lee has always been a guy who quietly puts up numbers. For example, he has 293 career HR's and 1700 hits. Lee had a bit of a power spike this season, hitting 35 HR's, and elevating his game a little bit past poor man's Pujols.

7. Ben Zobrist (2b/rf- Rays) .297/.405/.543
Coming into this season, Zobrist was a 27-year old utility infielder with a career BA of .222 and middling power, the low-ceiling prospect the Astros dealt for Aubrey Huff (look for him on the other list). He exploded in 2009, as the rest of the Rays were imploding. Is this a fluke season? Probably yes, though he's a better player than guys like Mark Bellhorn, who were also glove-challenged infielders getting by on power and patience, who had one great year. Don't draft this guy too high in fantasy next year.

6. Hanley Ramirez (ss- Marlins) .342/.410/.543
Ramirez also stole 27 bases and drove in 106 runs in his first year batting #3 instead of leadoff. Ramirez is not a great shortstop, and a bit of a bonehead, but he's worth two of Jose Reyes. The trade that sent him from Boston to Florida gave Boston the pieces they needed for their 2007 title, but the Marlins-- assuming they ever spend enough to contend-- may have won that trade in the long term.

5. Kevin Youkilis (1b/3b- Red Sox) .305/.413/.548
Youk's a bit of a late bloomer, peaking at 29 and 30. He's a winning, hard-nosed ballplayer you love to hate unless he plays for your team. Billy Beane called him "the Greek god of walks", though apparently he isn't even Greek. That made him sound like a slightly better Dave Magadan, instead of the near-MVP type player he's become.

4. Joey Votto (1b- Reds) .322/.414/.567
Votto is a 26-year old Canadian, who like Utley, plays in a hitter's park but hits better on the road. He had 38 doubles and 25 homers despite missing 31 games, and quietly anchors a Cincinnati lineup that could conceivably steal the NL wild card next year.

3. Prince Fielder (1b- Brewers) .299/.412/.602
A Prince Fielder off-year looks like this: .276/34/102. That was 2008. For 2009, he swatted 46 homers and drove in 141 runs. He's only 25, with no injury history, and it would be nice to see his career follow the pattern of Frank Thomas, instead of Mo Vaughn, or papa Cecil, among the man-mountain first basemen.

2. Joe Mauer (c- Twins) .365/.444/.587
He's mind blowingly good. Imagine an athletic Mike Piazza with a line drive swing. His power emerged in 2009, as he hit 28 HR's when his previous high was 13. Defensively, he wins Gold Gloves because he can hit.

1. Albert Pujols (1b- Cardinals) .327/.443/.658
47 jacks, 135 RBI, and 115 walks. The Cards need to re-sign Holliday, or pitchers are going to start giving him the Barry Bonds treatment. He has 366 HR's already and just turned 30. He is the Michael Jordan to Tony LaRussa's drunken Phil Jackson.

Did you notice there are no outfielders in the top 10? Also, here's 11 through 20. Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Jason Bay, Miguel Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, J.D. Drew, Lance Berkman, Shin-Soo Choo. That's right. Shin-Soo Choo.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

BAY SIGNS WITH THE METS (FINALLY)

The Summary: It's not enough. But it's a good start. Pending a physical, the Mets have signed a 4 year $66 million contract with Jason Bay.

The Good
: power, upgrades the lineup, stability in the outfield

Bay is a solid middle of the order hitter, stabilizing the middle of the Mets lineup. He is a career .280 hitter with a solid .376 career OBP. Obviously, though, he's earning the big bucks for his power. He's averaged 30 HRs in the 6 full seasons he has played, hitting over 30 in 4 of the last 5 years. His power bat is welcome in a Mets lineup that ranked last in HRs last year. Between him, Beltran and Wright (who I expect a rebound, from last year at least), the Mets lineup has upgraded to at least an average NL lineup.

I also appreciate that Bay is a *right* handed power hitter. Wright's power outage notwithstanding, CitiField is supposed to be slightly better for right handed power hitters, and having a second right handed power bat is something the Mets haven't had in ages.

Bay, at 31, may be slightly past his peak, but he isn't in serious decline, and should provide quality at bats through the life of his contract. Which is a welcome change from some of the geriatric charity cases that have been signed in the past.

Finally, Bay should provide some consistency in the outfield. He isn't known as a great defender, but he is not a huge liability, and he is certainly better than Sheffield and the random folks that trotted out there last year.

Oh, and he can steal a few bases, too. He's averaged 11 in the last five years.

The Bad:
Streaky, Possibly injury risk, Will he last here?

The big question has been: What took him so long to sign? It took a grand total of 20 days before 'Baywatch' ended. Given that the difference between the initial offer of $65 million and the final offer of $66 million is minute, I would like to assume that the supposed market for Bay never materialized. Bay did receive a tad bit more than most experts expected ($60 million over 4 years) but it wasn't as though there were several offers on the table. More likely, Bay and the Mets got this signing done this week to save face for both Bay (imagine if he ended up having to take the kind of deal that Pat Burrell did last year?) and the Mets (much longer and the Mets may have figured out that they could take the deal off the table).

The key indicator is Matt Holiday. If Holiday does not get at least 6 years at Teixeira level ($20+ milllion) prices, then clearly the Mets paid a premium for Bay. But like the Mets had to do with Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran in the early dark years of the 21st century (as opposed to the later dark years of the 2000s), the Mets have to pay to force people to come here.

Less discussed is that Bay's been labeled a fastball hitter, a 'guess' hitter etc. In other words he is a streaky hitter, that unsurprisingly, strikes out a lot. Which can be a bit problematic if things derail as it did for him as a Pirate in 2007 (.247 / .327 / 21 HRs). Hope for everyone's sake he doesn't have a bad year in 2010.

And the last scary point: Boston did not want him because of possible shoulder problems. Obviously, if those shoulder problems are serious, Bay should fail his physical. Then again, these are the Mets. If Bay passes his physical then hurts his shoulder, the Mets eroding fan base may continue to decline.

The Skinny

Taken entirely on it's own, I grade the signing a B. Yes it's a lot of money, but it is still a pretty big offensive upgrade. At this point in the year, other than the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers, I can't think of a team with a much better lineup. If they get NO ONE else, it's still not a horrible signing (unless Bay hurts his shoulder, in which case this signing is another big F for the Mets). If they get two decent pitchers on top of Bay, or one more good pitcher and one more decent hitter (NOT an aging Bengie Molina. Molina is great...for fantasy purposes but not for my hometown team), they turn the Mets into contenders.

Prediction: Assuming a full season I expect 150G 90 R, 150 H, 25+ HR, 100RBI and 80 walks from Bay. Anything else would be gravy. Anything less is a disappointment.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

BELATED INTRO TO IAN PARFREY

While he's posted quite a few times already, I never did get the chance to publicly welcome Ian Parfrey to BeSBALL TALK.

Ian, AKA The Stats Lab, is another baseball genius whose day job is that of a Catholic High School teacher (bless him), but he's also a musician, a wicked statistician, and a MVP level softball player. This man nurtured my softball cravings by introducing me to the rag-tag bunch known as Softball For the Love Of It, and my life has never been the same!

Ian also is a crazy opinionated fellow who makes me roll with every post. He's brutally honest, and can back up what he says. He's created absolutely awe-inspiring new stats that will have Bill James spinning. Needless to say Mr. Parfrey is a welcome edition to BT. Hope you dig his work!

Friday, December 25, 2009

ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS. . .

. . . is a reason to love the Mets organization in 2010. Wait that's asking too much.
. . . a reason to respect the Mets organization in 2010. Wait, that's even harder.
. . . a reason to like the Mets organization in 2010.

I follow the Mets because it was the first game I went to as a kid. It was 1985 and I was in 2nd grade. I had chicken pox (there's a vaccine for it now. How different would my life be. . . ), so I didn't have to go to school then next day, and got to stay out late. The team was exciting. I got to see Gooden, Strawberry and this awesome veteran 1st baseman Keith Hernandez, who was a great fielder and had a batting stance that I tried to copy endlessly for years after. The crowd was into the game and the Mets won that night. It was a perfect day in an otherwise very uncomfortable two weeks.

I also went to one Yankee game that year. The Yankees were a psychotic mess, with Steinbrenner needing three different managers to get through that season. They were a very good team, but not the day I went. It was a sleepy day game. The Yankees lost. The energy was totally different.

We now know that the crazy energy of the Mets of the mid 1980s was indeed crazy. It was a violent sex and drug fueled pyrotechnic display that burned out what was an amazing collection of talent. Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra and Kevin Mitchell all on the same team? No sane GM would want to replicate something similar, even if they could. For the young uns, think of it as having Barry Bonds, Milton Bradley, Oliver Perez and Gary Sheffield all on the same team. Add Zack Greinke prior to him getting his head on straight and every other dysfunction player you can think of from baseketball and football. Then it might approach the '86 Mets.

Oddly enough, what cemented my relationship with the Mets is that during the bottom of the 10th of the infamous 6th game of the '86 World Series I was up late (Thank you again, dad!).

I was praying. The irony is no longer lost on me. I was a Gary Carter. Ugh.

Then the ball went through Billy Buckner's legs. It was the biggest example in my life of prayer providing instant gratification. The only other time that happens is when I misplace stuff and I find it after a quick plea upstairs.

In retrospect, maybe I wouldn't slightly less messed up baseball fan and a better Catholic if John McNamara had made a defensive substitution.

Because the Mets are the only professional sports organization (I use the term 'professional' and 'organization' in a purely technical sense here) that I care about. I have developed a deep (unhealthy) emotional attachment to the orange and blue. I miss Shea. A lot. I've even bought a brick in the Sh!ttyField FanWalk for my son, who hopefully will be one of those rare well-adjusted Mets fans that I often pretend to be.

I can never truly hate the Mets organization, no matter how incredibly awful they are. Even though there have been years where I have shut the Mets out of my head, I don't usually follow any other team other than intellectually or statistically.

But after having what I know to be all of the flaws of the Mets upper management exposed in detail this year, coupled with the total lack of responsibility the Mets organization has shown in either acknowledging or improving their fundamental flaws, I will end today's post by saying:

If the Mets were my girlfriend this is the first year that I would want to see other people.

Explanations will have to wait until next week.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

VAZQUEZ TO YANKEES, MELKY TO BRAVES: FANS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

Congratulations to Joe Girardi. Now that he's proven that he could work with a 3 man playoff rotation, it looks like he won't have to next year.

For those unfamiliar with the details, the trade is as follows:

Yankees receive:
Javier Vazquez RH SP
Boone Logan LH RP

Braves receive:
Melky Cabrera OF
Mike Dunn LH RP
Arodys Vizcaino RH SP
& $500,000.

Both Vazquez and Cabrera are the main pieces of the trade as both are quality everyday players coming off excellent seasons (Vazquez 15-10, 2.87 ERA, 238ks, Cabrera with 13HRs and 10 steals). The Yankees get the better short term deal, as Vazquez is a top tier pitcher, and based on stats, he's a solid#2, even in the Yankee rotation. The Yankees also free up left field to get (yet another) big bat if they are willing to exceed the current $200,000,000 plus 40% of any excess of $170 million in luxury tax.

(For comparison, the Yankees were assessed a 25.69 million tax for having an average payroll of 226.2, well over the $162 million threshold for 2009.)

While at best, Cabrera is only an above average outfielder, Atlanta does reduces the number of starting pitchers on payroll from 6 to the standard 5 (Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrens. Tommy Hanson, and Kenshin Kawakami). Salary relief and the better long term options also go to Atlanta, as Vazquez is in the last year of his contract and Vizcaino is a young, fairly highly touted prospect.

Despite Vazquez's fairly impressive resume, Yankee fans will probably have some reservations. Vazquez was a very average pitcher in New York, despite going 14-10, with a 4.91 ERA. Vazquez is a great pitcher. . . in the National League. In the junior circuit his career ERA is a pedestrian 4.52. More importantly, he's also the guy that gave up a grand slam to Johnny Damon among the 12 runs (3 hrs) allowed in 11.1 innings during the 2004 postseason that most Yankee fans don't want to talk about.

Addendum:

In many ways I consider Vazquez to be the Anti-Lackey. Both are top tier starters, who could be an ace in another rotation. Both are now playing on different teams than they were last year. Both are also 33. But the differences. . . let me count the ways.

Lackey:
-Texan
-Will be the first time he will not be playing in an Angels uniform (although technically he played for Anaheim, the Los Angeles Angels and finally the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim).
-Injury prone
- Brief periods of being a strikeout pitcher
-Playing for Boston
-Remarkably consistent
-First year of a 5 year $82.5 million contract (6 years if he misses time due to preexisting elbow conditions)

Vazquez:
-Puerto Rican
-2nd time he has pitched for the Yankees. Has pitched for 4 other teams (Expos, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Atlanta)
-Practically nonexistent injury history (although he did pitch with elbow trouble while in New York in 2004)
-Strikeout pitcher that has had periods of not striking out people
-Inconsistent and often underperforms
-Playing for New York
-Has pitched at the Major league level since '98 (4 more years than Lackey)
-Free agent for the 2011 season.

If I were to draft a pitcher for the year for fantasy baseball. . . I would pick Lackey for H2H leagues and Vazquez for roto leagues. Vazquez puts up better season numbers, but Lackey is far more consistent week to week.

Merry Christmas to the Christians, Catholics and Greek Orthodox out there.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

GODZILLA'S FINAL WAR

Two of my least favorite Godzilla movies were Godzilla Raids Again and Godzilla: Final Wars. Ironically, though, they are two of the best in terms of a BT column title usage. I was fully prepared to use the former as a title for when Brian Cashman did the right thing and re-signed the Yankees' own Godzilla, World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, but now I am forced to use a variant on the latter title. Fittingly so, I might add, as the two titles really do convey Matsui's history here. GRA could have been the title of a column from when he resigned with the Yanks after the '05 season, and now that he's fought his "final war" in the Bronx, I unfortunately get to use the GFW variant. And there's no doubt, Godzilla has fought his final war here, as yesterday he agreed to a one year deal with one of our big AL rivals, the Angels. So enough about titles, let's get into what will be a multi-headed Ghidorah-type of column.

First on the man himself. Matsui wasn't like other free agent signings, he wasn't a mercenary, he was a player that was worshiped in his homeland, and whose greatest honor was to come play for the world's greatest franchise. Sure, he wasn't what he had been in Japan, but in the Yankee line-up he never needed to be. What he was, though, was clutch, and to Yankee fans that means everything. From the very beginning we knew we were in for a special ride. He hit a grand slam in his debut home game in the snow, and who could forget his double against Pedro in the greatest ALCS of all time and the subsequent emotional slide at home that tied the game (and ultimately got Grady Little fired). He became a natural fit for the club, and soon was thought of as brothers with Jeter, Posada, and Mo. He prided himself with being a Yankee and put up very good numbers during his initial contract. It earned a second pact, which unfortunately was marred with injuries. He broke his wrist in '06 that ended his Iron Man streak, and when he returned he did so with bad knees. It was as if the time off let his body assess all of the time he had put in and it blamed it all on his knees. He battled knee injuries for the next two years, and even this year when he had them more under control, he still missed a bit of time. That said, though, Matsui put up some good solid numbers which led to the playoffs where he did well, and then to a World Series where he was spectacular. He drove in six runs in the clinching game and earned the MVP.

Now that we know his run in pinstripes is over, I can't think of a more fitting way to leave. And honestly, there's a part of me that is happy his time here ends like this. Matsui finally achieving a World Series championship that he helped capture, getting to ride down the Canyon of Heroes, and being cheered like the true Yankee hero he had been. He has been my favorite Yankee since his first day here, the Godzilla connection holding strong, and he'll always have a special place in my heart. And make no mistake, the first tickets for the 2010 season I will be getting will be against the Angels, so I can stand up and help with the standing ovation Godzilla deserves.

That said, let's touch on the culprit here. Yankees GM Brian Cashman. I came down on him over Chien-Ming Wang on Saturday, but Matsui's way above him in the grand scheme of Yankeeland Icons. Matsui had become a true Yankee, and Cashman's refusal to think about his DH spot before answering apparently every other roster question is a clear slap in the face of the noble Japanese warrior. I understand it's a business, but sometimes there needs to be a line for players like this. If not for a player that as recently as November was one of the main catalysts for bringing this franchise its 27th World Championship, then for who?

So Cashman letting him go really gets my goat. I understand the importance that pitching and left field have, but I'm starting to believe the GM never wanted Matsui back. His staunch belief that the DH spot can be used as a weigh station for the aging players is nonsense at this point. I've said it a bunch of times already, maybe in another year or two you can start doing that, but it's just not time yet. It wasn't going to take much to bring Matsui back for one year, as witnessed by the Angels signing, he just needed to show the man some respect. When it was time for Bernie to go, I kind of agreed, as he had clearly declined, but Matsui wasn't there yet, and I valued his return over a possible Johnny Damon return. Matsui wasn't going to hurt you at DH, but Damon hurts you in left. Matsui is the better bat, too! Honestly, though, I'm glad he took the Angels' deal, as it was more a matter of pride and sticking it to Cashman. He didn't deserve to wait, and he didn't. Good for Matsui.

So what now? I'm down on Cashman? My team? No, not really. Cashman is all business, yes, and while that pisses me off sometimes, more often than not I'm on board. And once the season starts, I'm all in. This move, though, isn't even good business wise to me, so for now I'm not happy with the guy, but I'm a Yankee fan through and through, and I'll be anxiously waiting to see if there are other moves to be made.

So let's touch on that for a moment in regards to the outfield and DH spots. Besides Matsui going, another decent outfielder went to the Red Sox yesterday, and that's Mike Cameron. I'm very happy with this because I know the Yanks have had their eye on him for years, and he's never done anything for me. So good signing for the Sox. Does Damon become more imperative now for the Yankees? Perhaps, but I also hear the Yanks have engaged the agent of Jason Bay, who the Mets are hot on the trail of. I'd hate to further sink the cross-town rivals, but I'd prefer Bay over Damon. Might as well get a bit younger in left as well. Or heck, give me Matt Holliday, why not?

I just want the Yankees to show me why Matsui was let go. So let's get on with it Cashman, open the Yankee purses for the player YOU want, just do it already.

Monday, December 14, 2009

THE WORST PLAYER IN BASEBALL

Using a top secret offensive stat that I will divulge later, I've compared all 165 players who qualified for the batting title this year. If your team has one of the guys listed below, he may be the reason the team isn't going anywhere.

10. Aubrey Huff (1b/dh-Detroit) .241/.310/.384
Huff had a massive collapse after hitting .304 with 32 homers and 108 RBI in Baltimore last season. Acquired by Detroit for the stretch drive, he batted .189 in 28 games as Detroit's starting DH. Detroit lost to Minnesota in a one-game playoff for the AL Central title. Here's one of your reasons why.

9. Melvin Mora (3b-Baltimore) .260/.321/.358
Well, he's 38 years old, that's his excuse. Mora managed only 28 extra base hits in 496 PA's, and looks about done.

8. Jhonny Peralta (3b/ss- Cleveland) .254/.316/.375
Peralta has no speed, middling power, and middling plate discipline. As a shortstop hitting 20 homers, he has value. As a third baseman hitting 11 homers in a full season, he helped Cleveland lose 97 games. He may be destined for a bench role.

7. Cristian Guzman (ss- Washington) .284/.306/.390
Another brilliant signing by the Nats, from back in the Jim Bowden days. The .284 average looks nice, but he drew 16 walks, was 4-for-9 stealing bases, and he only had 37 XBH's. That's as empty a .284 average as you're going to find.

6. Kaz Matsui (2b- Houston) .250/.302/.357
The Barry Larkin of Japan, or that's what the Mets thought they were getting in 2004. Kaz helped the Astros to 88 losses. He's become a decent base stealer, going 19-for-22 this season, and has an 86% success rate for his career, but that makes you a pinch runner, not a starting infielder.

5. Jason Kendall (c- Milwaukee) .241/.331/.305
Kendall is 35, and hasn't hit since he was a Pittsburgh Pirate. The brightest spot in his line is that he managed 17 HBP's. The Royals decided this was worth a 2-year contract, but that's why they're the Royals, innit?

4. David Eckstein (2b- San Diego) .260/.323/.334
Sometimes when an infielder can't hit, you can at least say his fielding makes up for it. That's not the case here. Eckstein can't play short anymore, and pretty soon he won't be able to play second. He's had a hell of a career for someone blessed with only a little more than Joe McEwing in the skills department.

3. Emilio Bonifacio (3b- Florida) .252/.303/.308
Florida decided to negate the advantage that Hanley Ramirez gives them, by playing a third baseman who hits like a triple-A shortstop. Bonifacio is basically a pinch running prospect who managed only 18 XBH's in a full season, and doesn't field particularly well either.

2. Edgar Renteria (ss- San Francisco) .250/.307/.328
Renteria left his glove in St. Louis and his bat in Atlanta. He's supposedly only 34, though one wonders when a Latino player craters in his early 30's. The Giants missed the wild card by 4 games; perhaps Renteria's 25 XBH's had something to do with that.

1. Yuniesky Betancourt (ss- Kansas City) .245/.274/.351
The Royals might have been better off playing Billy Butler at shortstop. Or George Brett. Even though he's 56 years old. Betancourt batted .245 and drew 21 walks. That's pretty damn awful. He does have a little bit of gap power... and you'd think he fields like Ozzie Smith to earn a starting job with that bat... but no. In the Yankees' organization he'd be a bench player at Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

ACES WILD! LACKEY, HALLADAY, LEE ON THE MOVE!

Traditionally, the period between the Winter Meetings and Christmas has produced some very big deals, and this year doesn't look to be much different. Two big pitching deals have been reported on today, forget big, HUGE. The ramifications of which will be felt at multiple locations.

First off, John Lackey has signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox. It's for 5 years and roughly 85 million. Surprised to see Boston go against club policy and sign someone over 30 for that length, but I guess they'd rather give it to a pitcher than a hitter? Or maybe, seeing that Jason Bay is likely leaving, they wanted to strengthen one area, and the Bulldog gives them strength in spades. He's got the perfect fiery demeanor for this team, so Boston pounced silently and quickly and got the job done. This gives them six good starters that they can play with. Will one be a long man? Will one be trade bait? We'll see, but with Lackey in the fold, you can easily see them trying to swing a deal with San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. Clay Bucholz would be leading that package for sure. Or maybe they can flip Matsuzaka for a left fielder, say maybe Adam Dunn? Whatever they do decide to do, the Red Sox have clearly made a splash and bolstered their rotation.

Next up is a blockbuster three team deal that is currently in the works, but should be finalized within the next couple of days. This deal finally sends Roy "Doc" Halladay to the team that has obviously coveted him the most in the past year, the Philadelphia Phillies. What is surprising is that the reports say that Cliff Lee will be heading to Seattle in the deal. I would think the Phillies would kill to have those guys as their one-two, even if it was for a year of supreme dominance, but maybe the fact that they can sign Halladay for a cheaper/shorter extension than they could with the younger Lee is more attractive. Don't get me wrong, to me, Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, so grabbing him is an upgrade to even the phenomenal Lee. However, while Halladay and Lee have been the major reports here, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ have also taken physicals and may be part of this as well. Would Seattle take those two instead of Lee? If so, that's a steal for Philly, but with the major smoke around Lee's name, you'd have to think it was him. Many other prospects from the Phillies and Mariners have also been named, so look for Toronto to get a sizable prospect package with all they desire.

Do these deals affect the divisions they play in? Yes, they affect them aplenty.

Lets start in the NL East. More than anyone else, the Mets are very hurt by this. Their rotation behind Johan Santana is pretty much a mess, and their need to add top flight pitching was great. Lackey was the top free agent pitcher on the market, and Halladay was the top pitcher available in trades, and in one fell scoop they're off the boards. Even if the Phillies are giving up Lee, they are keeping Halladay away from their biggest rivals. The feeling from Mets fans and NY sports columnists and commentators was that they needed to get one of these guys, and while it's hard argue that, I've been steadfast that they wouldn't land either. Lackey was too expensive for their sensibilities even if they do have the money, and unless they were trading Jose Reyes, they didn't have the pieces Toronto wanted. And, yes, they wanted Reyes. Personally, I would've traded the shortstop, but that's me. Now the Mets have to pick up the right second (third? fourth?) tier pitcher, and, more importantly, make sure they land the offensive pieces they need. They could also try to work a creative deal for a better starter, but who would be available? One such pitcher that is available is Derek Lowe, but I don't think the Braves would trade a major piece like that to a division rival. That said, the market for Lowe has now gone up, so the Braves' need for an outfielder can be fulfilled via trade.

That last line ties right into the next division I'll address, and that is the AL West. With these major pitchers moving on, the Angels are faced with two major problems. The gaping hole in their rotation left by Lackey, and a rival's pitching staff getting a major stud in Cliff Lee to add to King Felix. Lowe is a perfect match for the Angels and they can easily deal Juan Rivera for him. This one is imperative for Anaheim more than the Braves. The Angels did add a big bat today, though, much to my chagrin, and that's Hideki Matsui, but that will get its own column. Seattle is becoming a major winner of this off-season, and should everything break right can overtake the Angels next season.

Finally, the AL East is certainly going to feel the ramifications of these moves. Again, the Red Sox have upped the ante with Lackey. They've added to what was already a good rotation, and now may have the best one. The Yankees will have to think long and hard now about how to fill their last two rotational holes. A free agent and a trade? A trade and one of the youngsters? The Yankees' reaction to this will be very interesting, and I wonder if they'd be players for Lowe, who they know can pitch in the AL East. Would they have to send Nick Swisher to Atlanta? I'd say that would create more problems, and Swisher is a big clubhouse guy. Instead, I'd trade for Bronson Arroyo, a solid pitcher whom we can get for Melky Cabrera, which would allow some breathing room in the outfield. Also, let's not forget, moving Halladay out of the league gives each team a few more wins a year. I'll take that.

Very fascinating day altogether, and as I write this, the Red Sox have also signed Mike Cameron for two years. This definitely closes the door for Jason Bay there, and also takes a good outfielder out of the pool. I'll look at this deeper as part of the Matsui post. As the night goes on, though, we may find out who the players are in the Halladay mega-trade, but I'd be surprised if Lee does not go to Seattle at this point in the reporting. Stay tuned...